Since the US and Portugal played to a draw Sunday, you might be wondering how the US could still advance to the Round of 16, and the writers at the Washington Post explain it quite well.
First, the US could beat Germany, win the group with 7 points, and happily advance out of the group. Sure, ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (538sports), which ranks the Germans as the third-best team in the world, gives the US only a 14 percent chance of beating Germany, but stranger things have happened in Brazil this summer.
Second, the US and Germany could play to a draw, in which case both teams would advance with 5 points each. There is no way either Portugal or Ghana can earn 5 points at this stage.
Some people have suggested Germany and the US might even agree to play to an unofficial draw, in effect fixing the outcome, since both teams would then be assured of advancing to the knockout round. In this case, the first tiebreaker, the goal differential, according to FIFA’s official regulations would come into play, since Germany and the US would be tied in terms of points at 5 each. Germany would have a bigger goal differential than the US and so would win the group, but both the US and Germany would advance.
As you can see, the US will advance if they draw or win against Germany. ESPN puts the odds of that happening at about 36 percent. If the US loses to Germany, a 64 percent chance, things get a little complicated. Germany would win the group with 7 points, and the US would have 4 if they lose to Germany.
The question is: How many points would Portugal and Ghana have? That would depend on their game next week. If Ghana and Portugal play to a draw, each team would have only 2 points, because Ghana and Portugal each have 1 point now, which Ghana earned in a draw with Germany and Portugal earned in the draw with the US. That means the US would take second and advance to the knockout round with its current stash of 4 points.
Now let’s look at the other two possibilities for the Ghana-Portugal game:
(1) If Portugal wins, since 3 points are awarded for a win, they would have 4 points and tie the US in points. The goal differential for Portugal now stands at –4 and for the US at +1. Since that’s the second tiebreaker, the goal differential in the Portugal-Ghana game would have to be less than 5 more than that in the Germany-US game for the US to advance on the basis of goal differential. For example, if the US loses to Germany, 3-1, and Portugal beats Ghana, 6-3, the US and Portugal would be tied in terms of goal differential. These blowouts aren’t considered likely, but, again, they could happen.
If the US and Portugal are tied in the group standings by points and goal differential, that would bring us to the next tiebreaker, goals scored. Right now, the US has scored 4 goals and Portugal 2. If the teams are tied in points and goal differential, the US would advance on goals scored if Portugal fails to score 3 more goals than the US in their final games.
But let’s say Portugal scores exactly two goals in a win over Ghana more than the US scores in a loss to Germany. The next tiebreaker is basically head-to-head competition. That’s no good, since both Portugal and the US earned 1 point in the game between them. Head-to-head competition won’t break the tie. Next …
If only two teams are involved in the tie, the next tiebreaker, goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned, has no effect, since the head-to-head tiebreaker will have already yielded the winner in a two-team tie. Likewise, the next tiebreaker won’t help us either: number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned. Since Portugal and the US drew, this tiebreaker is also useless.
That means, the fourth, fifth, and sixth tiebreakers won’t work if the US and Portugal are tied at the end of group play. The seventh tiebreaker is the old-fashioned coin flip, and it’s a little more sophisticated than pulling a quarter out of your pocket and throwing it in the air but ultimately just as random.
(2) If Ghana wins, the US and Ghana will be tied in terms of points. In this scenario, though, the goal differential for Ghana is only –1, compared to +1 for the US. Let’s say the US loses by 2 and Ghana wins by 1. The US would be eliminated and Ghana would advance in this case on the basis of a goal differential of +1 compared to the US goal differential of 0.
If, however, Ghana and Germany win by the same number of goals, Ghana and the US would be tied in terms of goal differential. The next tiebreaker is total goals scored, right now at 4 for the US and 3 for Ghana. This means, if the US is going to lose to Germany, it would be best to score as many goals as possible in defeat.
If we’re still tied with Ghana in terms of goals scored, the US would advance because of the head-to-head competition tiebreaker and the US victory over Ghana in the first game.
Non-soccer, school-related news
FIFA, the organization that sponsors the World Cup, is expected to raise about $4 billion through ticket sales, advertising revenue, and other sources. They’ll spend about $2 billion, netting $2 billion in the effort.
There’s a bit of corruption within FIFA because so much money is involved. The Guardian reported that Qatar’s controversial success in taking the 2022 World Cup was “propelled by millions of dollars in bribes, according to previously unpublished conversations key figures connected with FIFA held with undercover reporters.”
When so much money is at stake, corrupt and greedy people start greasing palms.
But that’s not even the half of it. Brazil has spent an estimated $14 billion getting ready for the World Cup, with high-tech stadiums spread thousands of miles apart in this expansive nation. Several Brazilians have taken to the streets to protest the government’s failure to provide money for schools and healthcare while spending so much to build stadiums for the World Cup. The 2016 Olympics will also be in Brazil, and more expenditures are required to build stadiums for that, people have complained.
Players from Brazil’s national team, still warmly greeted wherever they go, passed through a “gantlet of protesters in Rio de Janeiro” earlier this month on their way to their camp, the New York Times reported. Striking teachers there led the protest: “An educator is worth more than [soccer star and mini-god] Neymar [da Silva Santos Júnior].”