Our computer program has predicted winners in all eight classes for the 2013 Illinois High School Association football playoffs next weekend at Huskie Stadium on the campus of Northern Illinois University, DeKalb. Our mathematical model, which estimates the “strength” of a team based recursively on their and their opponents’ offense and defense equally, assumes that the team with the greatest average strength will win. Then, we run the games through a simulator 1,000 times.
Class 1A: Tri-Valley (13-0) over Lena-Winslow (10-3), 82%
Although Lena-Winslow has a habit of breaking our computer model while the computer usually picks Tri-Valley to win, as they have all season so far, when we ran it through the simulation, Lena-Winslow just didn’t score enough points against Tri-Valley from Downs. The Vikings have some model-breaking history of their own, too. In the playoffs, with games that we thought would be close against Maroa-Forsyth in the semifinal and Casey-Westfield in the quarterfinal, they won by 8 and 21 points. The computer is telling us this game won’t even be that close, but sometimes playing in a state championship has a major effect on the underdog. The game will be played Friday at 10 AM.
Class 2A: Newman Catholic (12-1) over Staunton (9-4), 91%
Staunton was one of the teams with a 5-4 regular season record that made the playoffs, which is something that often gives teams energy in the playoffs. Our computer model, however, is based on regular season games only. In other words, we’re fully willing to admit that the model has severely underestimated the Bulldogs five weeks after we stopped collecting data. Still, based only on the model, which was 75% accurate in 2012, we are calling for the Comets from Newman Catholic High School in Sterling to win. Keep in mind, though, they’ve never been behind since the first week when they lost to Rockridge, and their only close game came in the quarterfinals against Momence. Knowing what I know about how the model we use works, I would say this game is prime for a huge upset.
Class 3A: Stillman Valley (11-2) over St Joseph-Ogden (11-2), 57%
This game is likely to be close. Both teams have the same records and nearly the same Voxitatis strength indices (what we call “nu”). In the simulation, Stillman Valley won 572 times out of 1,000, so we’re calling it for the Cardinals, but their last two games have been narrow victories. Furthermore, St Joseph-Ogden is coming off 12- and 23-point victories against undefeated teams, Williamsville and Greenville, while Stillman Valley faced only one undefeated team, Winnebago, in the playoffs, whom they defeated by 14. What can I say? We’ve got some indicators pointing up and down for each team, but the cold computer gives it to Stillman Valley.
Classs 4A: Geneseo (12-1) over Rochester (12-1), 51%
And if you thought the 3A game was close, this one is even closer, with the nu statistics coming within one point of each other. Both teams sailed through the playoffs, but Geneseo faced slightly more victorious opponents. I think if we let the computer consider data from the playoffs, it might put it a little more in Geneseo’s favor, which makes the Rockets from Rochester even more of an underdog.
Class 5A: Sacred Heart-Griffin (13-0) over Montini (13-0), 85%
The two teams are undefeated and both earned a #1 seed in their respective brackets, but Sacred Heart-Griffin simply has one of the most explosive offensive records in Illinois football this year, having defeated their opponents by a total of 543 points so far. Among more than 575 teams in the state, only Central from Camp Point has that statistic over even 400 (Williamsville is at 400 exactly). Quite frankly, that’s just because the Cyclones put so many points on the board. The game is Saturday at 10 AM.
We would be remiss not to mention the 5A story from Sacred Heart-Griffin’s semifinal game against the Panthers from Washington Community High School, the first semifinal appearance for Washington since they won the 4A state championship in 1985. The outpouring of support and aid for tornado victims in Washington—nine players and one assistant coach lost their homes in the storm only six days before the semifinal game—has brought great honor to the community.
Game coverage in the Peoria Journal-Star … Two of the most emotional and moving drives we may ever see in a high school football game came in the second quarter and in the fourth. The first, a Washington scoring drive down a long field, culminated in a 2-yard run for a touchdown to bring them within 7, which brought cheers. The second, a Sacred Heart-Griffin apparent scoring drive, made it all the way down to Washington’s 2-yard line late in the game, when quarterback Malik Turner, his team up 44-14, started taking a knee until the end, which brought tears.
But in addition to these two teams, as this report from the National Federation of High School Associations shows, so many other football programs reached out to help their peers in Washington. University High School in Normal, whom the Panthers defeated in the quarterfinal round, opened up their practice facilities on the campus of Illinois State University. And because many vehicles in Washington were destroyed or inaccessible, Sacred Heart-Griffin, which is in Springfield, chartered almost a dozen buses to take fans from Washington to the semifinal game. Their cheers echoed those of an entire nation.
Tomorrow Washington will once again deal with the loss—and it could take a few years to recover fully—but for a day anyway, there was football. I’m speechless at the generosity and support for the residents of Washington in the aftermath of the destructive storm, and our thoughts and prayers are with them still. As one banner at the game put it, “God Bless Washington.”
Class 6A: Batavia (12-1) over Richards (12-1), 50%
Richards barely won against East St Louis (9-4). I only bring this up because their respective conferences are of equal strength, with three teams from each making the playoffs. Batavia played Richards in Week 2 and lost, 31-25, but our model predicts that Batavia’s strength as a team has improved since then. Although the nu indicators are within a point of each other, the simulator simply tacks on more points for Batavia in the majority of the games—barely. In the closest call of this year’s championships, we predict Batavia will even the record between the two teams this year and win the Class 6A final.
Class 7A: Lake Zurich (12-1) over Mt Carmel (12-1), 61%
Since our nu statistics are within 10 points of each other for these two teams, we’re confident of one thing: this game will be close. Both teams have defenses that shut down the best offenses, as Mt Carmel showed against Edwardsville in the semifinal game. But while Lake Zurich has had fairly comfortable wins all season, Mt Carmel has had to tough it out. Those comfortable victories sometimes confuse the mathematical model. For example, in the first three weeks of the season, Lake Zurich faced three teams that made the playoffs, defeating them by a combined score of 131-8. That differential tends to bump up the nu, especially since these were not exactly weak opponents. That is, our model may be overestimating Lake Zurich, and coach Frank Lenti from Chicago’s Mt Carmel knows how to win state titles. The computer calls it for Lake Zurich, but I personally expect an upset here.
Class 8A: Loyola Academy (12-1) over Naperville Central (10-3), 63%
Naperville Central is coming off a tough schedule in a tough DuPage Valley Conference, whereas Loyola Academy easily defeated Maine South (9-3) in the quarterfinals and squeaked out a victory against Stevenson (10-3). Naperville Central’s three losses came against tough conference opponents, all of whom made the playoffs, so while the computer model doesn’t hold that against them too much, it does still see them as losses. Loyola Academy won 634 games out of 1,000 in the simulator, and so we call it for the Ramblers, but the Redhawks may continue their surprises in the playoffs with an upset victory.