Our computer program has predicted winners in all eight classes for the 2013 Illinois High School Association football playoffs next weekend at Huskie Stadium on the campus of Northern Illinois University, DeKalb. Our mathematical model, which estimates the “strength” of a team based recursively on their and their opponents’ offense and defense equally, assumes that the team with the greatest average strength will win. Then, we run the games through a simulator 1,000 times.
Class 1A: Tri-Valley (13-0) over Lena-Winslow (10-3), 82%
Although Lena-Winslow has a habit of breaking our computer model while the computer usually picks Tri-Valley to win, as they have all season so far, when we ran it through the simulation, Lena-Winslow just didn’t score enough points against Tri-Valley from Downs. The Vikings have some model-breaking history of their own, too. In the playoffs, with games that we thought would be close against Maroa-Forsyth in the semifinal and Casey-Westfield in the quarterfinal, they won by 8 and 21 points. The computer is telling us this game won’t even be that close, but sometimes playing in a state championship has a major effect on the underdog. The game will be played Friday at 10 AM.
Class 2A: Newman Catholic (12-1) over Staunton (9-4), 91%
Staunton was one of the teams with a 5-4 regular season record that made the playoffs, which is something that often gives teams energy in the playoffs. Our computer model, however, is based on regular season games only. In other words, we’re fully willing to admit that the model has severely underestimated the Bulldogs five weeks after we stopped collecting data. Still, based only on the model, which was 75% accurate in 2012, we are calling for the Comets from Newman Catholic High School in Sterling to win. Keep in mind, though, they’ve never been behind since the first week when they lost to Rockridge, and their only close game came in the quarterfinals against Momence. Knowing what I know about how the model we use works, I would say this game is prime for a huge upset.
Class 3A: Stillman Valley (11-2) over St Joseph-Ogden (11-2), 57%
This game is likely to be close. Both teams have the same records and nearly the same Voxitatis strength indices (what we call “nu”). In the simulation, Stillman Valley won 572 times out of 1,000, so we’re calling it for the Cardinals, but their last two games have been narrow victories. Furthermore, St Joseph-Ogden is coming off 12- and 23-point victories against undefeated teams, Williamsville and Greenville, while Stillman Valley faced only one undefeated team, Winnebago, in the playoffs, whom they defeated by 14. What can I say? We’ve got some indicators pointing up and down for each team, but the cold computer gives it to Stillman Valley.
Classs 4A: Geneseo (12-1) over Rochester (12-1), 51%
And if you thought the 3A game was close, this one is even closer, with the nu statistics coming within one point of each other. Both teams sailed through the playoffs, but Geneseo faced slightly more victorious opponents. I think if we let the computer consider data from the playoffs, it might put it a little more in Geneseo’s favor, which makes the Rockets from Rochester even more of an underdog.
Class 5A: Sacred Heart-Griffin (13-0) over Montini (13-0), 85%
The two teams are undefeated and both earned a #1 seed in their respective brackets, but Sacred Heart-Griffin simply has one of the most explosive offensive records in Illinois football this year, having defeated their opponents by a total of 543 points so far. Among more than 575 teams in the state, only Central from Camp Point has that statistic over even 400 (Williamsville is at 400 exactly). Quite frankly, that’s just because the Cyclones put so many points on the board. The game is Saturday at 10 AM.
We would be remiss not to mention the 5A story from Sacred Heart-Griffin’s semifinal game against the Panthers from Washington Community High School, the first semifinal appearance for Washington since they won the 4A state championship in 1985. The outpouring of support and aid for tornado victims in Washington—nine players and one assistant coach lost their homes in the storm only six days before the semifinal game—has brought great honor to the community.
Game coverage in the Peoria Journal-Star … Two of the most emotional and moving drives we may ever see in a high school football game came in the second quarter and in the fourth. The first, a Washington scoring drive down a long field, culminated in a 2-yard run for a touchdown to bring them within 7, which brought cheers. The second, a Sacred Heart-Griffin apparent scoring drive, made it all the way down to Washington’s 2-yard line late in the game, when quarterback Malik Turner, his team up 44-14, started taking a knee until the end, which brought tears.
But in addition to these two teams, as this report from the National Federation of High School Associations shows, so many other football programs reached out to help their peers in Washington. University High School in Normal, whom the Panthers defeated in the quarterfinal round, opened up their practice facilities on the campus of Illinois State University. And because many vehicles in Washington were destroyed or inaccessible, Sacred Heart-Griffin, which is in Springfield, chartered almost a dozen buses to take fans from Washington to the semifinal game. Their cheers echoed those of an entire nation.
Tomorrow Washington will once again deal with the loss—and it could take a few years to recover fully—but for a day anyway, there was football. I’m speechless at the generosity and support for the residents of Washington in the aftermath of the destructive storm, and our thoughts and prayers are with them still. As one banner at the game put it, “God Bless Washington.”
Class 6A: Batavia (12-1) over Richards (12-1), 50%
Richards barely won against East St Louis (9-4). I only bring this up because their respective conferences are of equal strength, with three teams from each making the playoffs. Batavia played Richards in Week 2 and lost, 31-25, but our model predicts that Batavia’s strength as a team has improved since then. Although the nu indicators are within a point of each other, the simulator simply tacks on more points for Batavia in the majority of the games—barely. In the closest call of this year’s championships, we predict Batavia will even the record between the two teams this year and win the Class 6A final.
Class 7A: Lake Zurich (12-1) over Mt Carmel (12-1), 61%
Since our nu statistics are within 10 points of each other for these two teams, we’re confident of one thing: this game will be close. Both teams have defenses that shut down the best offenses, as Mt Carmel showed against Edwardsville in the semifinal game. But while Lake Zurich has had fairly comfortable wins all season, Mt Carmel has had to tough it out. Those comfortable victories sometimes confuse the mathematical model. For example, in the first three weeks of the season, Lake Zurich faced three teams that made the playoffs, defeating them by a combined score of 131-8. That differential tends to bump up the nu, especially since these were not exactly weak opponents. That is, our model may be overestimating Lake Zurich, and coach Frank Lenti from Chicago’s Mt Carmel knows how to win state titles. The computer calls it for Lake Zurich, but I personally expect an upset here.
Class 8A: Loyola Academy (12-1) over Naperville Central (10-3), 63%
Naperville Central is coming off a tough schedule in a tough DuPage Valley Conference, whereas Loyola Academy easily defeated Maine South (9-3) in the quarterfinals and squeaked out a victory against Stevenson (10-3). Naperville Central’s three losses came against tough conference opponents, all of whom made the playoffs, so while the computer model doesn’t hold that against them too much, it does still see them as losses. Loyola Academy won 634 games out of 1,000 in the simulator, and so we call it for the Ramblers, but the Redhawks may continue their surprises in the playoffs with an upset victory.
Lena-Winslow won the 1A championship game, 28-21, working off two first-quarter fumble returns for a touchdown by senior Tyler Oakley, the first for 61 yards and the second for 70 yards, a state record for the 1A championship game. The game shows how a statistically weaker team can make adjustments and win the game. Our computer model deserves to be wrong when a team like this gets a few breaks early and then takes advantage of the opportunity those breaks give them in the game. Congratulations to the Lena-Winslow Panthers.
The second half was scoreless in the 2A championship game until 1:06 remained, but despite a nearly superhuman effort by Staunton quarterback and linebacker Jake Bruhn, the Comets from Newman Central Catholic defeated the Bulldogs, 40-13. Bruhn refused to come out after a second-half injury. He completed 13 of 23 passes for 267 yards in the game, made 12 solo tackles on defense, and recovered a fumble, but Newman’s offensive steadiness was just too constant, leading to touchdowns on each of their first five possessions. Congratulations to the Comets from Newman Central Catholic High School in Sterling on their fifth state championship.
When I said it would be close, I didn’t think it would be this close. The game was an offensive shoot-out, the second half seeing six possessions with six touchdowns before the clock just ran out on the last one. Back and forth the game went all half. In overtime, as Stillman Valley’s Zac Hare ran it into the end zone in the first possession, the ball fell out of his hands. But, he was so close to the goal line when he went down and the officials’ view was so obstructed by a crowd of players that the 4th-down run was ruled a touchdown. A successful 2-point conversion meant St Joseph-Ogden had no choice but to attempt a 2-point conversion after they scored their touchdown in overtime, owing mostly to the brilliant play of quarterback Dalton Walsh, who overcame an illegal blocking penalty on 2nd down that pushed his team back to the 27-yard line. Stillman Valley’s defense cranked it up on the coversion though, sacking Walsh, ending the game, and giving Stillman Valley their fifth state title, 43-41.
The 4A title game wasn’t quite as close as we thought it would be, but there was a time when everyone was holding their breath. The Rochester Rockets defeated Geneseo, 16-8, to win their fourth consecutive state title, the only public school to win four consecutive 4A titles. Initially, it looked like a defensive battle was unfolding, as Geneseo was keeping Rochester off the field adequately. That can only work so far, though, as two touchdowns by Rochester’s running back Drake Berberet turned out to be all they needed. Congrats to the Rockets!
Day 1: Our computer is batting .500, with 2 games right, 2 games wrong.
After Montini ran a kickoff back 83 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter, putting them up 21-7, this game was all Sacred Heart-Griffin. From that point on, the Cyclones went on a 31-0 run, winning the game, 38-28, and making coach Ken Leonard the first father to win a state championship in the same year as his son, Derek Leonard, coach of the 4A Rochester Rockets. As the first half ended, Montini had a 1st-and-goal at the 5-yard line, and SHG held them off. That drive seemed to switch the momentum in SHG’s favor, and once an explosive offense like SHG gets a hold of the momentum, they don’t usually let go. To cap off their next drive, SHG’s junior quarterback Gabe Green ran it straight down the middle for 17 yards for one of his three rushing touchdowns in the game, giving the Cyclones their first lead of the game, 24-21. They never looked back.
Richards came to DeKalb with a very dynamic, play-making offense, but the state’s final 6A game ended with Batavia on top, 34-14, as running back Anthony Scaccia rushed for almost 200 yards inlcuding three touchdowns, helping to bring his Bulldogs their first-ever state title in football. (In 2006, they lost to Normal Community in the 6A title game.) The school’s only other state title in any IHSA sport came in the 1911-12 boys’ basketball season. So, the state title dry spell lasted 102 years—not quite as long as the World Series drought for the Chicago Cubs, but a dry spell nonetheless. Congratulations to the Batavia High School Bulldogs on winning the state’s 6A championship!
But for a few early mistakes that set the tone, the 7A championship game would have been the defensive battle we thought it would be. Unfortunately, Lake Zurich fumbled twice early and started Mt Carmel’s offense 6 and 13 yards from the end zone. Running back Matt Domer rushed in easily for touchdowns on both of these short drives, putting Mt Carmel up 14-0 with 1:16 still remaining in the first quarter. Then, a bad punt put Mt Carmel within quick striking distance again, and Lake Zurich was looking at a 3-possession deficit against one of the top two defensive teams in Class 7A (theirs is the other one). Congratulations to the Mt Carmel Caravan, who won 30-0 and whose persistent ball control would have propelled the school to its record 12th football state championship even without the turnovers, most likely. Previous championships were in 1980 (coach Bill Barz), and in 1988–1991, 1996, 1998–2000, 2002, and 2012 (coach Frank Lenti, also a record).
No touchdowns were scored in the first half of the 8A championship game, owing to the very powerful defenses each team brought to DeKalb. For example, Naperville Central’s Dan Dolehide recovered a fumble on special teams in the first quarter and intercepted a Jack Penn pass in the end zone in the second. And for a while, the fourth quarter was starting to look like it was prime for a Loyola come-from-behind victory, as both they and the Redhawks had done in their semifinal games. But, as the Ramblers got close to the end zone, down 6-2, coach John Holecek decided to attempt a 22-yard field goal. That’s when Naperville Central’s Dillon Grooss blocked it, scooped up the ball, and ran it about 85 yards for a touchdown. That not only took 3 points off the board for the Ramblers but added 7 for Naperville Central, clinching a 13-10 win. It was almost as if the Alabama-Auburn game earlier today was some sort of omen. These are the memories we will take from the IHSA football championships this year. Congratulations to the Naperville Central Redhawks, led by coach Mike Stine, who didn’t even make the playoffs in the 2012 season and this year will bring back the school’s second football championship trophy. Their previous championship came in 1999.