Our computer algorithm based on a mathematical model for predicting the winner in Illinois high school football games usually works for about 85 or 90 percent of the games at the end of the season, especially when the absolute value of our α statistic is greater than 30. But the playoffs are different, as some teams dig deep. In the first round of the playoffs, our algorithm looked at 128 games, got 88 of them right (69%), picked a clear winner wrong in 21 games (16%), and picked wrong in a close call in 19 games (15%).
Take Downers Grove North, for example. They went 5-4 on the regular season, and the best record of the five teams they beat was 6-3 for intra-district rival Downers Grove South, which lost in Round 1, 36-0, to Naperville Central (6-3). Downers Grove North’s opponent in Round 1, Whitney Young, on the other hand, was undefeated this season, clobbering all their opponents except Schurz by an average of 39.9 points. Our computer was impressed, and so it called the game for Whitney Young.
Unfortunately, our computer doesn’t actually play the game. That job belongs to the teams on the field, and North’s defense just wouldn’t let Whitney Young score—or even move the ball (total offense in the first half for Whitney Young was –3 yards). John Wander’s Trojans did the same thing to our computer last year, by the way. They play in the Silver Division of the West Suburban Conference, and five of the seven teams in the conference made the playoffs this year. The conference is deep. “Just like a year ago when the Trojans defeated Batavia, 38-26, the Trojans’ 5-4 record was very deceiving,” wrote Patrick Z McGavin for the Chicago Sun-Times, here.
North scored 28 points in a shutout, and that 28 figure represents 10 points more than Whitney Young allowed in all nine games of the regular season. Our computer was understandably confused, so let’s take a closer look at what happened.
Young’s quarterback position may have had something to do with the low offensive production, as Christian Everett, who normally plays wide receiver, was filling in for starter David Craan, who was out for the second game this year due to an injury. Since Craan was out as a starter only one other time this season, our computer might not have been able to take that fully into account.
That’s a plausible explanation for our misreading of this game, but what I suspect happened is that the Downers Grove North defense just cranked it up a notch for the playoffs, proving that what they did last year wasn’t just an aberration. Even an offense with a non-quarterback would gain more than –3 yards in the first half against a typical 5-4 opponent.
Just a bit to the north, the DuPage Valley Conference also sent five of its eight teams to the playoffs this year, including 7-2 Wheaton Warrenville South. The game against Dunbar (8-1) was a bit of a surprise for our computer as well.
Dunbar plays in the Red Bird Division of the Illini Conference for the Chicago Public Schools, which includes Simeon, so it’s got a tough team or two in there. Dunbar got walloped by Simeon in the regular season, though, and most of their remaining opponents didn’t make the playoffs. I’m thinking about adjusting our programming to take into consideration that some teams just play a tougher schedule overall and some mitigating factors should be introduced into our calculations so this doesn’t happen as frequently next year.
But as we have it now, the computer thought Dunbar was going to win this game. In terms of seeding, Dunbar was 4 and Wheaton Warrenville South was 5, so it was a small upset in those terms as well, but our computer really missed this one. The score was 48-16, a 32-point differential.
As with Downers Grove North, we can attribute this to the defense. Wheaton Warrenville South intercepted Dunbar quarterback Jayton Dorsey three times in the game, returning one of them for a touchdown. Nothing swings the momentum in high school football quite like a pick six. And no matter what the computer may think, three interceptions will cause it to automatically reboot every time.
For a listing of all the games we called wrong, please see our ad hoc report, here. For more of our football coverage, please visit our main football page, which is now running in playoff mode, here, or visit the IHSA football playoff pages, here.
