Because of how the Illinois High School Association determines the 256 football teams that will have a postseason opportunity to get to the state championship game in one of eight classes based on school enrollment, teams that win six games are guaranteed to be in the playoffs. That’s just how the math works (see pigeonhole principle).
Next weekend begins Week 6 of the season, meaning some teams will have achieved a 6-0 record and earned an automatic playoff berth. (Our football pages.)
- Number of 5-0 teams after Week 5: 57
- 5-0 teams in conferences ineligible for the IHSA playoffs: 2
- Teams that could clinch a playoff berth in Week 6: 55
The two 5-0 teams playing in conferences that aren’t eligible for the IHSA playoffs are: in the CPS Inter-city 2 conference, South Shore International College Prep, and in the CPS Inter-city 3 conference, Noble Street Charter.
Next we look at our predictions for each of the 55 teams in Week 6 using our α statistic. All but six teams have a positive α value, meaning our computer model has called them to win the game next week.
And four of the six teams with negative α values are playing another undefeated team in Week 6. One of them is going to win:
- Maine South (slight favorite) over New Trier
- Geneseo (moderate favorite) over Yorkville
- Carterville (slight favorite) over Nashville
- Oak Park-River Forest and Glenbard West (even game)
The two remaining teams predicted to lose in Week 6, Freeburg and Lincoln-Way West, are in very close games: the magnitude of α is 8.1 and 4.3, respectively.
So, the number of teams that earn an automatic playoff berth as a result of achieving six wins on the season will be between four and 51. Our mathematical model puts the number at 49, with eight of those being involved in evenly matched games in Week 6. That takes us down to 41, of which only 12 aren’t considered “comfortable” wins.
All the undefeated teams are playing Illinois opponents in Week 6, and our predictions were better than 80 percent accurate in Week 5 of this season.
In summary, then, we are highly confident that 29 or more teams will have a 6-0 record before another seven days go by. Can’t wait to see who they are.
