This post will make a prediction for the outcome of Illinois state championship football games in all eight classes, which will take place the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving, Nov. 23 and 24, at Memorial Stadium on the campus of the University of Illinois, Champaign.
For each prediction, we report the odds computed by our mathematical models that the first team listed will win the game. Since we use two different models, we ran the simulator twice to get the odds, and we report the low and high values from the simulator in the story below.
Our models are not built to predict scores or point spreads, just the winners. In the 16 semifinal games, our model was a little less accurate than it was in the quarterfinals, guessing the winner correctly in 10 out of 16 games (62.5%). The models only missed one game, though, in which it predicted a comfortable win: we gave Central-Southeastern Coop an 80 percent chance against Althoff Catholic in 2A, but Althoff won, 28-7.
Class 1A: Stockton (57-74%) over Maroa-Forsyth
The Stockton Blackhawks defeated Stark County, 51-14, in this afternoon’s semifinal match-up. Our computer gave Stockton a comfortable win in this game, but the championship game Friday at 10 am looks to be closer, at least if our mathematical models are hitting the mark. The computer still says Stockton should defeat Maroa-Forsyth, but it happens fewer than three out of every four times we run the simulation.
Class 2A: Mercer County (91-93%) over Althoff Catholic
We are predicting that the Golden Eagles from Mercer County High School in Aledo will defeat the team from Althoff Catholic. That’s because Althoff Catholic had a tough regular season, scoring only 58 more points over nine games than their opponents, and Mercer County just about clobbered all their opponents. Our computer model is based on points scored and points given up by the team and by their opponents.
This contest has all the earmarks of a potential upset, however, since Althoff Catholic has beaten the odds—which were admittedly not as steep as they are in the championship game—in all four rounds of the playoffs this year. Mercer County has sailed through the playoffs, as our model predicted they would in all four rounds before getting to the championship, but if they expect a similar victory here, they might be in for a surprise.
Class 3A: Aurora Christian (54-82%) over Unity (Tolono)
The only team that beat Aurora Christian so far this year is Montini, which is also making the trip to Champaign for a 5A championship game on Saturday. And the score was just 31-27, so you might understand why one of our models gives Aurora Christian a great chance of winning the game. Our simulations, however, only produced a victory in 54 percent of the runs over Unity High School. And that’s because Unity squeaked out victories against 1A finalist Maroa-Forsyth in the regular season and against Williamsville in the quarterfinals despite similar odds to those they face in this championship game.
So, we’re predicting Aurora Christian will win, based on their demonstrated team strength, but a little extra adrenaline from the championship trip could be all Unity needs for a few key plays to push the game over into the upset column.
Class 4A: Rochester (41-56%) over Alleman
Both teams had a pretty comfortable win in their semifinal games, but we predict a close game for the championship in 4A. Even though the odds look like they lean more toward Alleman, Rochester actually won in more of the random simulations than Alleman, so we predict a victory for Rochester in this game. Our model predicts, however, that this will be the most closely-matched pair of teams to compete for a state championship this year. Again, our models make no predictions about the final score, just about the relative team strength.
Class 5A: Morris (48-72%) over Montini
Montini got to Champaign by a 3-point win over Joliet Catholic Academy, a game that our models predicted would be close, given that one model called it for Joliet Catholic while the other one called it for Montini. The Broncos aren’t bad at winning close games, as they showed against Sycamore in Round 2 of the playoffs, against Palatine (10-2) in Week 1, and against state finalist Aurora Christian in Week 8. This one could be close, as both teams have scored about the same number of points this season: 463 for Morris, 449 for Montini.
Morris has also demonstrated an ability to win close games, and Montini is the only finalist this year with a negative nu statistic. This means that they have allowed more points by their opponents than those opponents averaged in their games during the season or scored fewer points than their opponents gave up on average. This is why, despite sometimes more wins for Montini in our randomized simulator, we’re predicting a victory for Morris on Saturday at 10 am.
Class 6A: Crete-Monee (54-61%) over Cary-Grove
Two undefeated teams will go head-to-head in 6A and 7A this year. In 6A, Saturday at 1 pm, we’re giving Crete-Monee a slight mathematical edge. The Warriors have scored more points this season than the Trojans (509-484) and produced a better point differential during the regular season (307 vs. 232).
Still, this is a tough call, because neither model predicted either team would lose a single game this season or in the playoffs until both models predicted Cary-Grove would lose the championship game. In other words, our computer has been right about these two teams all season, but it never predicted a loss that would give the team a chance to demonstrate “against the odds” performance. To give you a better idea of just how difficult it is to predict a winner in this game, we can look at how strong each team’s schedule was so far this year. Unfortunately for us, this doesn’t help much either: Crete-Monee’s opponents, all of them defeated, combined for 73 wins this season; Cary-Grove’s opponents combined for 75 wins.
Let’s just call it based on the randomized simulator and say we predict a victory for Crete-Monee in a close game.
Class 7A: Glenbard West (35-58%) over Lincoln-Way East
Another battle of two undefeated teams should be a closely-matched affair. Our models are giving Glenbard West a slight edge, but it is interesting to note that, while these two teams have scored almost exactly the same number of points so far this season (466 for Lincoln-Way East compared to 463 for Glenbard West), only Lincoln-Way East has defeated an opponent this year who is also in Champaign. That would be Montini, which East defeated in Week 2, 20-14.
This game is ripe for an upset, based on our computer models, given that each team has posted so far exactly the same number of combined wins by all defeated opponents (79), which gives us some clue as to the caliber of opponents these teams have played so far. Our models are both leaning the same way, which is toward Glenbard West, but we want to remind you that games between equally-matched teams, especially in the playoffs and even more so in the state championship game, are very difficult to call, because they often come down to one or two momentum-shifting plays.
Class 8A: Mt. Carmel (68-87%) over Glenbard North
We’re predicting that Frank Lenti’s team from Mt. Carmel High School in Chicago will win the state’s final football game. Mr Lenti has won more varsity football games than any other coach in Illinois history, a mark he achieved in the 2011 season, and our simulations give the Caravan a victory more than two out of every three runs against Glenbard North.
Both teams are 12-1 this season. Mt. Carmel lost in Week 6 to Loyola Academy (11-2), 30-27, and Glenbard North lost to Batavia (9-1) in Week 1, 42-41. However, Mr Lenti’s Caravan are a scoring machine, plain and simple, having scored 298 points more than their opponents in the nine-game regular season, compared to a point differential of 147 for Glenbard North.
