Monday, October 18, 2021

Weekly margin of victory in Illinois football



Please see our analysis of the margin of victory for all Illinois high school football games in Week 2 of the 2009 season at the link above. To conduct this analysis, we analyzed all Illinois schools for Week 2, using only schools that played Illinois opponents. There were 279 games in this category.

Victory margins ranged from one point to 64 points, but only one game was decided by a margin of more than 57, which would classify the victory of Central Southeastern Coop over fellow West Prairie Trail (Southwest) Conference opponent Rushville-Industry as an outlier for our data purposes. The mean margin of victory in these games was 23.12, a little higher than last week’s mean of 22.37, but the standard deviation did go down, as we predicted it would throughout the season, coming in at 13.98, compared to last week’s standard deviation of 14.63.

For the record, we computed the median statistics as well, with the quartiles coming in at 12.5, 22, and 34. About 90 percent of the games were decided by margins between 3 (5th percentile = 2.9) and 48 points. Our analysis revealed that 21 games were decided by 3 points or less and 35 games (12.5 percent) were decided by less than a touchdown.

[[ graphics omitted ]]

And finally, it is interesting to note that of the 279 games played between two Illinois schools in Week 2 of the season, only nine were decided by one point. We list those here, only the first of which was a conference match-up:

  • In Little Illini, Cumberland d. Lawrenceville, 21-20
  • Warrensburg-Latham d. Sullivan, 27-26
  • St. Teresa d. Tuscola, 14-13
  • Mendota d. Aurora Christian, 37-36
  • Stevenson d. Glenbrook South, 50-49
  • Buffalo Grove d. Barrington, 14-13
  • Lockport d. Richards, 37-36
  • Streamwood d. Dundee-Crown, 28-27
  • Schurz d. Kelly, 34-33, at Rockne Stadium Saturday
Paul Katula
Paul Katula is the executive editor of the Voxitatis Research Foundation, which publishes this blog. For more information, see the About page.

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