Fewer than 52% of Indiana high school graduates from the Class of 2023 went directly to college, according to the latest data from the Indiana Commission for Higher Education, the Indiana Capital Chronicle reports, down from a high of about 65% a decade ago.
Our analysis of college matriculation trends over the past decade reveals a complex and evolving landscape. The national decline, exemplified by states like Indiana, is multi-faceted, driven by
- demographic shifts,
- growing skepticism about the value and cost of a traditional degree, and
- the increasing prominence of alternative postsecondary pathways.
The decline isn’t uniform, with significant variations across states and a disproportionate impact on young men and students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, as well as a concerning recent trend in Black student admissions at selective institutions.
Looking ahead, declining birth rates now may cause an “enrollment cliff” to intensify in the not-too-distant future, which will spark competition for a shrinking pool of traditional college-aged students. At the same time, the continued growth and increasing acceptance of vocational training and apprenticeships, coupled with evolving labor market demands and the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence, could further reshape the pathways to successful careers.
The societal implications of these trends are profound. A less educated populace could lead to lower overall median earnings and tax revenue, higher unemployment, and increased demand for social services. Worsening inequality across racial and socioeconomic lines risks widening societal divides and hindering collective progress in areas such as public health and civic engagement.
Addressing these complex challenges will require strategic interventions that encompass comprehensive postsecondary advising, robust support for diverse educational and career pathways, innovative approaches to college affordability, and targeted efforts to dismantle systemic inequities in access to education and opportunity. The future prosperity and social cohesion of the nation depend on a proactive and adaptive response to these shifting matriculation patterns.
The decision to pursue higher education immediately after high school has long been a cornerstone of the American dream, promising upward mobility and economic stability. However, recent data suggests a fundamental re-evaluation of this traditional pathway.
The report from Indiana, which highlights a sharp drop in direct college matriculation among Indiana’s Class of 2023 graduates, serves as a compelling, localized indicator of a broader national phenomenon. Our analysis endeavors to explore the underlying factors contributing to these shifts, identify any notable geographic variations or outlier regions, and critically examine the presence of inequities related to race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status within these trends.
By dissecting these complex dynamics, we aim to provide a clearer understanding of the challenges and opportunities that will shape the future of postsecondary education in the US.
Examining the data
The National Center for Education Statistics reports no significant overall change for college enrollment rates for 18- to 24-year-olds between 2012 and 2022. It has held steady between 38 and 41 percent. And the percentage of people in the US who have a bachelor’s degree or higher has increased over the last decade, the Federal Reserve of St. Louis (FRED) reported.
However, for recent high school graduates, the direct matriculation rate (percentage of high school graduates who enroll in college the following year) fell to 61.4% in 2023, representing a 4.8 percentage point drop from pre-pandemic levels in 2019, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This 2023 figure marks the lowest college enrollment rate for recent high school graduates since 1990.
While a gradual decline in college enrollment has been observed over the past decade, the data indicates an accelerated drop since the onset of the pandemic. This suggests that the pandemic either introduced new factors or intensified existing ones, leading to a steeper downward trajectory in matriculation rates. This temporal nuance is critical, as it points to a recent inflection point that has significantly altered what was previously a long-term trend of increasing college enrollment since the 1960s.
A closer look at the trends
The majority of recent high school graduates who do enroll in college still opt for four-year institutions. In 2023, for instance, 1.4 million students, representing 46% of the graduating class, enrolled in four-year programs. In contrast, enrollment in two-year colleges has experienced a consistent decline each year since 2020, accounting for only 16% of recent graduates in 2023.
This consistent drop in two-year college enrollment is particularly noteworthy. You might thing that during periods of economic uncertainty or growing skepticism about college value, two-year institutions, often perceived as more affordable and accessible, would see increased enrollment. However, the data suggests that factors driving the overall decline, such as immediate workforce entry or the appeal of alternative pathways, may be disproportionately impacting the attractiveness of community colleges. This indicates a broader re-evaluation by students of even the more affordable higher education options.
Another significant aspect of the matriculation decline is its uneven impact across genders. College enrollment among young Americans has been gradually decreasing over the past decade, with young men driving a substantial portion of this decline, particularly at four-year institutions. Approximately 1 million fewer young men are enrolled in college today compared to 2011, while the reduction for young women is comparatively modest at 0.2 million.
Consequently, men now constitute only 44% of young college students, down from 47% in 2011.4 This shift is almost entirely attributable to the decreasing proportion of men attending four-year colleges. At two-year institutions, the enrollment drop has been similar for both genders, thus maintaining the existing gender balance.
In 2022, only 39% of young men who had completed high school were enrolled in college, a notable decrease from 47% in 2011. While the enrollment rate for young women also fell, it was less dramatic, moving from 52% to 48% over the same period. The college enrollment rate for young women (69.5% in October 2024) continues to be significantly higher than that for young men (55.4%) among recent high school graduates.
Hypotheses for declining college matriculation
The observed decline in college matriculation is not attributable to a single factor but rather a complex interplay of demographic shifts, changing perceptions of value, the emergence of alternative pathways, and evolving labor market demands.
Demographic Shifts. A fundamental factor contributing to decreasing college enrollment is a projected decline in the number of college-aged individuals. Birth rates in the United States have been steadily falling since the Great Recession of 2008 and have not recovered to pre-2007 levels.
This demographic trend is anticipated to lead to an “enrollment cliff,” with the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projecting a nearly 15% drop in high school graduates between 2025 and 2037. This impending reduction in the pool of traditional college-aged students is already beginning to affect higher education institutions, particularly those with smaller endowments or a more regional appeal.
Skepticism regarding value and cost. A significant deterrent to college enrollment stems from a growing skepticism among parents and students regarding the return on investment of a college degree. Tuition costs have escalated dramatically, rising nearly tenfold since the early 1980s, far outpacing the growth in overall inflation and per capita income.
This means the financial burden of college relative to income has almost doubled. While the annual rate of tuition inflation has slowed since the mid-1990s, the cumulative increase remains staggering; for example, average tuition and fees for a four-year public institution rose from $5,740 in 1994-95 to $11,610 in 2024-25.
The prospect of accumulating substantial student debt can actively discourage enrollment, especially for low-income students who may be “loan-averse” and choose to forgo college to avoid debt altogether. While the total outstanding student loan debt has indeed increased significantly (more than sixfold since 2003), a nuanced look at federal loans per undergraduate student reveals a decrease ($5,100 in 2003-04 to $3,900 in 2023-24).
This is partly offset by grant aid playing an increasing role, rising from an average of $6,500 to $11,600 over the same period. Despite these shifts in financial aid, the widely publicized student debt crisis and the general perception of insurmountable debt or poor return on investment appear to be more powerful deterrents for prospective students than the actual loan burden for new enrollees. This suggests a critical need for clearer communication regarding financial aid options and the realistic long-term value of various educational pathways.
Adding to this skepticism, only 1 in 4 adults now believe a bachelor’s degree is “very important” for securing a good job, according to The College Investor. This declining perception of necessity directly impacts the incentive on the part of high school seniors to incur significant costs for a degree.
Rise of alternative postsecondary pathways. A major shift in student preferences is the burgeoning interest in non-degree education pathways. A recent survey found that only 45% of students in grades 7-12 viewed a two- or four-year college as their most likely next step in 2024, a substantial decline from 73% in 2018. Over the same period, interest in alternative options such as vocational schools, apprenticeships, and technical boot camp programs more than tripled, rising from 12% to 38%.
Apprenticeship participation, in particular, has seen dramatic growth, with a 128% increase in new apprentices between 2009 and 2019, and over 12,000 new programs established between 2014 and 2019. The US Department of Labor reports approximately 680,000 individuals currently enrolled in apprenticeships, nearly a 90% increase since 2014.10 These programs offer compelling benefits, including paid work experience, classroom instruction, and nationally-recognized credentials, often leading to average annual salaries of $70,000 upon completion.
Despite the clear economic benefits and growing student interest in these alternative pathways, a significant social stigma persists, particularly among parents, hindering broader adoption. Nearly one-third of surveyed teens reported that their parents disagreed with their plan to pursue a non-degree program, according to the survey. This indicates a disconnect between the economic realities and opportunities presented by these pathways and ingrained societal expectations, often perpetuated by traditional guidance counseling models. Overcoming this cultural barrier is essential for these pathways to fully realize their potential in addressing the nation’s skills gap and offering viable alternatives to traditional college.
Evolving labor market dynamics. Students overwhelmingly view postsecondary education as a means to secure a good job, irrespective of whether it leads to a degree or a non-degree credential. The evolving labor market, however, is increasingly prioritizing skilled workers, leading to more opportunities for individuals holding certificates or licenses. In some cases, trade schools now offer a higher return on investment than traditional four-year degrees, and employers are increasingly “suspending the use of degree completion as a proxy” for job readiness, instead focusing on skills-based hiring.
A concerning development is the rising unemployment rate among recent college graduates, which stood at 5.8% in March 2025 — the highest since October 2013 (excluding pandemic disruptions). This trend is accompanied by indications that entry-level positions traditionally filled by new graduates are being displaced by artificial intelligence at higher rates.
This introduces a new and significant factor in the perceived value of a traditional degree. The labor market is not only demanding different skills, but the very nature of entry-level employment is changing due to technological advancements, such as the advent of artificial intelligence. This directly impacts the perceived return on investment of a college degree, potentially pushing more students towards immediate, skills-based training options.
Inequity in college matriculation
The declining college matriculation rates are not distributed evenly across all segments of the population, revealing persistent and, in some cases, widening inequities based on race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status.
Race and ethnicity. In 2022, the college enrollment rate for 18- to 24-year-olds varied significantly by race and ethnicity: 61% for Asian individuals, 41% for White, 36% for those of Two or more races, 36% for Black, 33% for Hispanic, 27% for Pacific Islander, and 26% for American Indian/Alaska Native individuals, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Among recent high school graduates in October 2024, Asian individuals maintained the highest enrollment rate at 94.7%, considerably higher than White (62.2%), Black or African American (59.2%), and Hispanic or Latino (55.4%) graduates.
Historically, the percentage of racial or ethnic minority enrollment among all postsecondary students has increased substantially, from 15.36% in 1976 to 45.23% in 2022. Hispanic or Latino enrollment, in particular, has seen an 884% increase relative to 1976 and continues to grow annually. Asian or Asian American enrollment has also shown steady growth since 2010.
However, a specific area of concern is Black or African American enrollment, which, after rising until 2010, has been in decline since then. This specific downward trend within the Black student population contradicts the broader narrative of increasing diversity and points to a unique challenge that predates recent policy shifts. This could be influenced by a combination of factors, including the lingering effects of economic downturns, changes in financial aid accessibility for this group, or an increased appeal of immediate workforce entry or alternative pathways.
- The share of Black applicants increased slightly in 2024 (from 7.8% to 8.2%), representing the largest single-year change for this group in the dataset.
- But the share of Black admitted students remained constant at 6% between 2021 and 2024. More critically, at selective institutions (those with acceptance rates below 50%), the share of Black admitted students decreased from 6.6% to 5.9% between 2023 and 2024, despite the increase in applicants.
- Conversely, White students’ shares of the applicant, admitted, and enrolled groups have consistently decreased since 2018 (e.g., applicant pool from 48% to 40%). Notably, White students are the only group that consistently comprises a larger share of admitted students than applicants.
This divergence between increasing Black applicants and stagnant or decreasing Black admitted students at selective institutions, coupled with a rise in undisclosed race/ethnicity, suggests an immediate impact of the Supreme Court’s ruling on affirmative action. While overall minority enrollment has grown historically, the pathways to highly selective institutions for certain minority groups, particularly Black students, may be becoming more challenging. This could exacerbate existing inequalities in access to top-tier education.
Socioeconomic status. Socioeconomic status remains a powerful predictor of college enrollment. Data indicates that approximately 89% of students from well-off families pursue higher education, compared to 64% from middle-class families and only 51% from low-income families.
These socioeconomic gaps are particularly pronounced in four-year college enrollment, with students from the top 40% of income brackets significantly more likely to attend a four-year institution. Even when accounting for high school performance, students from the most socioeconomically advantaged families are 11 percentage points more likely to attend college than those from the most disadvantaged backgrounds.
For the high school Class of 2023, only 52.3% of students from low-income schools immediately enrolled in college, compared to 65.1% from higher-income schools. The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) has consistently highlighted that “large and widening gaps for low-income students continue to be a cause for concern” throughout their postsecondary journey. Furthermore, nearly one-third (30%) of traditionally aged undergraduate students originate from the top quintile of wealth by zip code, while a mere 12% come from the least wealthy neighborhoods.
The persistence of large and widening enrollment gaps between low-income and high-income students, despite the availability of Pell Grants and even an increase in average grant amounts, suggests that financial aid alone is insufficient to fully bridge the multifaceted barriers faced by socioeconomically disadvantaged students. This observation indicates that factors beyond direct financial cost, such as loan aversion among low-income students, disparities in K-12 academic preparation and college readiness resources, and insufficient guidance on college options and financial aid, may play a significant role.
For many low-income students, the immediate opportunity to earn wages in a strong job market may also outweigh the perceived long-term benefits of a college degree, especially when coupled with the prospect of debt. Addressing socioeconomic inequity in matriculation therefore requires a holistic approach that extends beyond financial assistance.
Societal implications of declining enrollment
The decline in college matriculation is not merely an individual challenge but represents a “slower moving crisis” with profound, long-term implications for the entire US economy and social fabric. The full extent of these systemic consequences may not be immediately apparent but will accumulate over decades.
Economic consequences. Individuals who don’t pursue higher education generally face significant economic disadvantages. High school graduates without a college degree have markedly lower lifetime earnings (an estimated $1.6 million for a high school diploma versus $2.8 million for a bachelor’s degree) and higher rates of unemployment (9% compared to 5.5% for bachelor’s degree holders).
This lower educational attainment leads to a reduction in tax contributions (approximately 45% less than bachelor’s degree holders) and an increased reliance on government-funded social services, such as Medicaid, food stamps, and unemployment benefits. This creates a challenging economic scenario where a larger proportion of the population may require social services in an economy generating less tax revenue.
Furthermore, overall economic growth could be hampered by a decrease in aggregate consumer spending, directly linked to lower average earnings across the workforce. Poverty rates also show a clear correlation with educational attainment, with higher rates observed among those without college degrees (13% for high school diploma holders versus 4% for those with at least a bachelor’s degree in 2018).
Social and civic impacts. Beyond economic indicators, declining college matriculation has broader social and civic ramifications. Higher levels of education are consistently associated with healthier lifestyles, including increased engagement in vigorous exercise and lower smoking rates.
Moreover, educational attainment is strongly linked to higher levels of civic involvement and voter turnout. In 2018, for example, 32% more US citizens with at least a bachelor’s degree voted than those with only high school diplomas. A reduction in college-going rates, particularly among low-income students and students of color, directly exacerbates existing inequalities, as stated above.
If college access is declining more for certain demographic groups, and college attendance is strongly correlated with positive life outcomes (higher earnings, better health, greater civic participation, etc.), then the societal costs of non-matriculation will disproportionately fall on these already marginalized communities. This creates a feedback loop where existing inequalities are deepened, potentially leading to increased social stratification and reduced upward mobility for significant portions of the population over generations.
Impact on higher education institutions. Finally, for higher education institutions themselves, declining enrollment poses an existential challenge. Many colleges and universities are heavily reliant on tuition revenue to sustain their operations, making a drop in student numbers a direct crisis for their operating model. This financial pressure can lead to program cuts, faculty reductions, or even institutional closures, further impacting educational access and local economies.
