We have once again recomputed team strength coefficients, using games played after Oct 8 only. This tends to emphasize the performance of teams that made the playoffs, since good teams tend to ramp up their performance during the playoffs, we have found.
When we ran each game through a simulator 100 times, the team we predicted to win, shown below, won that many of the games.
|
Class 1A Carrollton over Central-Southeastern, 70% Galena over Forreston, 68% Class 2A Class 3A Class 4A |
Class 5A Geneseo over Montini, 55% Sacred Heart-Griffin over Peoria, 67% Class 6A Class 7A Class 8A |
As last week, we can almost sense an upset in the Providence-Mt Carmel game. Mt Carmel plays an exceedingly strong schedule throughout the regular season. That helps prepare them for the playoffs, but it also sends our algorithm down a wrong path. No model can be as good as the real thing.
And although the IHSA’s seeding formula doesn’t even purport to measure team strength, it also puts the Caravan low in the rankings as a result of losing four games in the regular season. However, the team is much stronger than their score-based statistics would seem to indicate.
Providence is a strong team as well, which means it’s always a good game when these two teams meet. They are both well coached and well prepared for playoff competition.
