If nobody wins today’s Mega Millions jackpot, the winnings would start at $800 million, officials say, and the size of the pot could be $1 billion by Christmas, CNN reports.
I’m not a gambler, and Mega Millions has longer odds than just about anything else on Earth, but it’s sometimes fun for adults to play. If I win with my $1 ticket today, my first choice of beneficiary will be the cities where public education has been decimated.
What are the odds of …
- Being killed by an asteroid: 1 in about 250,000
- Being struck by lightning in a given year: 1 in about 700,000
- Winning the Mega Millions with a $1 ticket: 1 in about 259 million (see below)
- Getting what you paid $1 for when you buy a candy bar: Unity (a sure thing)
On Oct 18, the company that runs the Mega Millions changed the odds by increasing the number of possible outcomes. In other words, they made it harder to win. Since they changed the odds, nobody has won the Mega Millions jackpot, and since it keeps rolling over, that’s one of the reasons it’s so high at this point. Since it doesn’t matter what order the balls come out in, the number of possible outcomes is computed as follows:
75C5 = 17,259,390
17,259,390 × 15 = 258,890,850
Mathematically, that’s how you calculate the odds of winning the jackpot in Mega Millions.
In order to choose all five white balls on just one ticket, you have a 1 in 17 million chance, and then there are 15 gold balls to choose from for the Mega ball. Upon multiplying the two probabilities, since both must be satisfied to win the jackpot, the final odds are about 1 in 259 million.
The odds used to be 1 in about 176 million
There used to be 56 white balls, of which five were chosen, plus the Mega ball, which was out of 46 instead of 15 as it is now. 56C5 × 46 = 175,711,536.
How would you use the money if you won?
